It's scarcely a year since political sages pledged to kick the propensity for a lifetime, and manage without feeling surveys. In May 2015 there were more overviews, all the more thoroughly crunched, than at any other time, but then they demonstrated so wrong that numerous pronounced "never again".
The choice, be that as it may, has set off a genuine backslide. The cadence of the news cycle and the state of mind of the adversary camps has – at the end of the day – been directed by every day dosages of information. Yes, on the off chance that you need a legitimization for slipping by again into the propensity for governmental issues by numbers, you can most likely think of one. December's Oldham West byelection, for instance, which Labor conveniently won after unending reports starting from the earliest stage Corbyn would be pounded, proposed that http://mehandidesignsimg.cabanova.com/ journalistic shoe cowhide was generally as untrustworthy as surveys. In all actuality with such a great amount in question, we essentially can't help it. We may have found a year ago that we can't live with the surveys, however this year, we have found once again that we can't survive without them.
So what have they appeared? Prior on in the long battle, the answer was "nothing clear", on the grounds that there were two parallel pictures, with overviews web proposing a dead warmth, while more conventional phone surveys tenaciously anticipated a twofold digit lead for remain. To suspicious personalities this may have resembled a rebuked industry covering its behind. Two unique techniques creating two diverse answers would empower the surveyors to treat their outcomes like Groucho Marx's standards, and say "in the event that you don't care for my outcomes, I have others". Such negativity, be that as it may, now looks out of line, in light of the fact that the two strategies have subsequent to focalized, with both coming to anticipate a moderately close race, in which – in the last straight – remain appreciates a slight point of preference.
In any case, what genuine certainty, assuming any, would we be able to have that – after a year ago's calamity – the overviews will be correct this time around? Very little, shockingly. The enormous defect uncovered in the exhaustive post-race request for the business, by Prof Patrick Sturgis, has not been acceptably tended to. The root issue, he found, was not a minute ago nerves in the voting booth or deficient turnout channels, yet rather an animal disappointment by the surveyors to meet the right individuals.
Two or three way to-entryway overviews keep running by scholastics and distributed long after the occasion got decision 2015 right. The huge contrast was that these studies chose voters' names aimlessly, and afterward continued pounding on their entryways until they replied. Alternate surveys, whether online or telephone, abandon the difficult to-achieve, proceed onward to other telephone numbers and email locations, and in this way neglect to accomplish a certifiable blend. In 2015 it unfolded that Tories, for reasons unknown, were that bit harder to animate, making the enormous surveying miss.
The surveyors have concocted a wide range of changes to adjust their Conservative deficiency – fiddling around with the exact age or class blend, or the quality of the suppositions made about how such demographics shape your probability to turn out. Some played around with the requesting of inquiries, others took another enthusiasm for what daily papers their respondents read, and others again forced more grounded suspicions on which way "don't knows" would go. None of it, be that as it may, touches the central issue of neglecting to achieve an appropriately politically illustrative blend of voters.
When I clarified different post-race wheezes the UK business has attempted to the surveying master Nate Silver and his associates on the FiveThirtyEight podcast this week, their decision was that it "seemed like you're attempting to remake the plane in the meantime as attempting to fly it". Who is to say whether specially appointed fixes, to support the Tories and thump Labor around a couple focuses, will enhance things, or exacerbate them, in the altogether different setting of a choice that cuts crosswise over partisan principals?
The issue with online surveys is that they depend on enrollment of self-selecting boards, which implies they will – essentially – over-speak to the kind of individual who, in light of an email saying "Might you want to give your supposition on X or Y?", answers "yes, yes, yes". Audience members to talk radio have constantly realized that the sorts who are blasting for the opportunity to vent their perspectives are lopsidedly obstinate and great, and – surely – Ukip voters are methodicallly over-spoke to in crude web information.
An alternate skew, which is getting further, is grinding away with the telephone surveys. In the realm of the pervasive deals call, the kind of individual who gets a landline and answers the opener, "Hi, I'm from ABC research, I thought about whether I could put forth a couple of inquiries?", by saying "Beyond any doubt, I have time to talk" is not commonplace either. Reaction rates are plunging, and those few who do get would – I recommend – be more disposed than the normal to be sunnily arranged towards whatever is left of humankind. Work was unequivocally over-spoke to in a few of a year ago's phone surveys.
Presently one may, likely, wander that my proposed online predisposition – towards the hyper-obstinate – would work to compliment take off. ICM examination, which indicated an especially high extent of leave-inclining voters racing to answer to online review demands inside the primary hour of them being conveyed, gives some backing to this. Alternately, my hunch would be that my proposed phone inclination – towards the individuals who feel warmth towards outsiders – would compliment remain. Be that as it may, who knows? After all the jiggery-pokery, whether unintentionally or plan, the two study modes have united.
So what proof do we have that is genuinely free of the essential telephone and web information? One generally online overview, directed by scholarly scientists at NatCen, was recognized by its endeavor to accomplish something more like a genuine irregular blend, by recontacting individuals who didn't promptly answer. It indicated a 53%-47% triumph for remain, so a shade more definitive than the normal 52%-48% lead for stay in the last surveys. The issue with this is the hands on work occurred between 16 May and 12 June, so the vast majority of it missed the early June swing to leave reported in all different surveys, don't bother the last week swing back to remain. Marginally all the more opportune is a mid-June BMG telephone survey, which additionally made an extent of rehash calls, and isolated out the outcomes. This proposed, as 2015 Tories, remain supporters will probably require a second call, to some degree harder to get hold of, and therefore – maybe – liable to be under-checked.
One final heave method of reasoning for keeping confidence with the surveys is that in spite of the fact that they are all defective, at any rate they are imperfect in various ways. That gives some motivation to have confidence in those things they all have said reliably. Like, for instance, the way that the elderly are more leave-slanted, and graduates more prone to shelter remain. Like, as well, the swing towards leave in mid-June, and the swing back in the previous few days.
Most, yet not every one of them, now rank stay as appreciating the edge. Assembled that with the BMG finding about remainers being additional tedious to call, and you start to see why the wagering markets are convinced to the point that Britain is staying in. So the head says the last surveys will http://mehandidesignsimg.wix.com/mehndidesigns most likely have it right, and remain will undoubtedly have the edge. In any case, – for my own particular part – I'm unquestionably not hurrying down to the bookies. The one hustling conviction is that if the surveyors fail to understand the situation again today, they'll be exposed to the harsh elements of reality for over a year this time.
Ecstasy would it say it was in that day break to be alive? I don't think numerous will feel the same way that William Wordsworth did about the French upheaval when they think back on June 2016 and our submission on Europe. For this was no springtime of people groups, no sensible civil argument in Plato's republic, and no political Glastonbury either. Furthermore, it has not created the national cleansing that some sought after. Nobody is grabbing a couple of hours' rest tonight considering, stunning, that was exactly what we as a whole required, give us a greater amount of it.
This choice was about Britain and Europe. In any case, it was likewise an irritating disclosure of the way we now do governmental issues. All things considered it really want to be a reflection on David Cameron. This was his appear, arranged over years, not weeks. He delivered, composed, coordinated and featured in it. It mirrored his method for representing, his model of administration, his needs, his legislative issues and his state of mind to Europe. What's more, it has been a shabby obfuscate for which he should assume liability.
Those of us who have not survived hard and fast war ought to be reluctant before drawing the parallel that takes after. Be that as it may, this has been the principal event in my life when I have encountered a peacetime minute all the more regularly connected with war, in which you understand that all that you know may soon and all of a sudden vanish, the great alongside the spoiled. In my perspective the obligation regarding that swaying question about the future untruths with Cameron as well as sits decisively at the entryway of the submission procedure itself.
Maybe some on the leave side of the contention, similar to the writer Rupert Brooke when war softened out up 1914, have said thanks to God for coordinating us with the submission's hour. Maybe too it is helpful, every now and then, to be helped to remember how close despite everything we live to a condition of nature, in the midst of all our consumerist and innovative hubris. Countries are not endless. In any case, the two straightforward words that have come progressively to mind over the previous month are those that were utilized so regularly by the eras who rose in place from war in 1918 and in 1945. Never again.
Submissions have hinted themselves into our legislative issues in the last half-century. Like the investor's reward, the xenophobic tabloid, the icy call, the urban fox and a ton of the other unwelcome parts of present day Britain, nobody ever emphatically welcomed them into our lives. Be that as it may, they have picked up an a dependable balance among.
Rather Cameron just about floated into the choice. He seemed to think until the battle really began that it would be a reiteration of the primary EU vote in 1975, in which lion's share supposition would support the staggering agreement of the decision class for staying on the terms he had arranged. It didn't play out as expected for some reasons: among these, I think, was an inclination among post-crash voters that monetary notices don't generally apply to them however just to the far off rich and corporate. In any case, the choice turned out to be a greater amount of an irate demonstration of payback than a deliberate demonstration of majority rule support.
This was a long way from being a detached submission. The submission is currently the weapon of decision for populist gatherings of left and right. The European Council on Foreign Relations called attention to today that populist parties around Europe now propose a sum of 32 submissions on issues extending from EU participation to exile amounts. A vote in favor of Brexit, says the committee, could be the development sign of a "political wave". Since the study makes no notice of the Catalonia autonomy submission that may rise up out of a triumph for the left in Spain's decision on Sunday, the figure of 32 is presumably a think little of.
The way that populists like choices is not as a matter of course a contention against them. Be that as it may, it is absolutely motivation to reflect a great deal all the more deliberately about the spot of submissions in our frameworks of agent government. Each submission yields the contention that parliament is not generally sovereign. For a political framework, for example, Britain's, which is fixated on a primitive idea of sway, that is an elusive slant.
Over the past half-century, Britain has floated into an arrangement of submissions that has couple of basic principles or strict criteria. We discuss submissions being held for real established issues, however without characterizing what such issues are. Now and then a choice is authoritative, here and there not. We say submissions are exceptional, however we have couple of extraordinary principles to represent them. We are conflicting about their utilization. In the UK devolution at times includes a choice and some of the time not. European arrangements can be liable to choices however different settlements are most certainly not. The option vote was put to a choice yet relative representation in European decisions was most certainly not. We don't indicate that a submission can't abrogate central rights.
There may, in specific circumstances, be a contention for submissions in our legislative issues. However, the contention must be superior to that we have had a few submissions in the past or that a great deal of general society might want one. Individuals will dependably concur they need a say. However it is a long way from clear that an arrangement of choices reinforces trust in majority rules system. Neither Ireland nor Switzerland, where choices are more basic, appear to vindicate that. Germany's constitution is firmly established in the inverse perspective. Furthermore, if an issue is sufficiently real to require a submission, why is it not sufficiently significant to require an abnormal state of turnout or an improved greater part of those voting, as ought to be the standard?
Cameron has quite recently put Britain through an anxiety test of the recommendation that a noteworthy issue can be best determined by a submission. Politically, maybe he had no way out. Be that as it may, the outcome really means Britain's place in Europe is messier, not illuminated. The submission has presented less authenticity on legislative issues, not more. It has pushed the countries and groups of Britain separated, not united them. It has permitted a terrible press to carry on significantly all the more flippantly.
After what we have encountered in the previous month, we require political change like never before. In any case, the decision on submissions ought to be a heartless one. Never again.
Retailer Hobbycraft has sewn up an http://mehandidesignsimg.kinja.com/mehandi-designs-images-pdf-kitchen-table-set-require-to-1782263608 ascent in deals and benefits subsequent to slicing costs to gain by the progressing patterns in expressions and artworks, and home preparing.
Fundamental benefits at the 83-store tie took off almost 63% to £10.9m as deals expanded by 7.6% to £152m in the year to 21 February.
Human expressions and artworks bunch opened new stores additionally delighted in a close to 5% ascend in deals at set up stores as TV projects, for example, the BBC's The Great British Bake Off, The British Sewing Bee and The Great Pottery Throwdown have enlivened grown-ups and youngsters to begin innovative undertakings.
"Television is an impetus that kicks it off, then online networking takes off a while later and it gets its own particular energy," said Catriona Marshall, CEO of Hobbycraft.
She said youthful grown-ups were progressively being enlivened to have a go at conventional specialties, for example, sewing, sewing or stitch by seeing things they needed on online networking destinations, for example, Instagram and Pinterest.
Notwithstanding inconveniences somewhere else on the high road, the £3bn UK create business sector is as of now developing by 4.5% a year.
Offers of sewing machines rose 11% throughout the year following a 30% expansion the prior year while offers of string expanded 30% as another era of individuals grabbed abilities their grandparents would have been acquainted with from YouTube recordings. "It has skirted an era," Marshall said.
Marshall said Hobbycraft had possessed the capacity to benefit from interest by cutting costs and enhancing its circulation and store network and additionally discovering better approaches to speak with clients. The gathering now has a 1.9 million-in number Hobbycraft Club, and another activity which helps fans share their manifestations on the web.
In the midst of rivalry from pound stores and discounters, Hobbycraft now has 4,000 distinct items estimated at £1 contrasted with 200 with 300 two years back.
Offering online is additionally boosting deals. Hobbycraft's site expanded deals by 36.4% throughout the year and Marshall said it was keeping up that pace of development. One month from now the organization will start offering abroad by means of its site as it intends to manufacture online deals over the current 7% extent.
In any case, store extension will likewise venture up. Marshall said four more Hobbycraft stores opened in 2015 and eight to 10 were arranged for this present year.
Dominic Chappell, the previous proprietor of BHS, attempted to pay for a family occasion to the Bahamas on organization costs and took a £90,000 advance from the retail tie to pay an individual expense bill, as per proof submitted to MPs.
The charges were made by Darren Topp, CEO of BHS, in an accommodation to the parliamentary advisory group examining the downfall of the organization, which blames Chappell for regarding the retailer's cash as though it was his very own assets. In any case, Chappell said the cases were "unfortunate and frivolous" and blamed Topp for "purposely lying" to ruin him.
The most recent claims and counter-asserts by Topp and Chappell are liable to madden BHS staff and lenders. BHS broken down into organization in April, putting 11,000 employments at danger and leaving obligations of more than £1.1bn, including a £571m benefits shortfall. The end of the organization could cost the citizen £36m in unpaid duty and excess installments.
Topp claims that Chappell made an "unmistakable nepotistic environment" at BHS, acquiring loved ones into key positions, including his uncle as administrator.
In a progression of claims about Chappell's behavior, he said Chappell, who has been pronounced bankrupt three times, attempted to purchase flights to the Bahamas for his family from the organization travel spending plan. After Topp cannot, Chappell requested his pay to be paid early so he had the cash for his vacation. The HR division consented to the installment on the premise of "hardship".
Topp likewise claims that Chappell trained BHS's account office to pay him a £90,000 advance while the organization's fund advisor, Michael Hitchcock, was on vacation.
"This was during an era when money assets were constrained and expected to pay both suppliers and representatives finance," Topp said. "Chappell saw no refinement between the organization's cash and his very own cash; he considered them to be one and the same. The level of money related administration appeared by Chappell was extremely poor."
Chappell hit back at Topp, saying he needed to book the flights to the Bahamas through the organization's travel specialists since they were putting forth an aggressive cost. He approached to pay for them on the organization account since he had been out of the workplace for "various days" on the day they should have been reserved and did not have entry to his Visa or bank sign in subtle elements.
Chappell said he wanted to pay for the trek when he returned however Topp hindered Chappell's solicitation. "There was no plan at all to have the organization pay for my private travel, it was absolutely an issue of logistics," Chappell included.
The previous BHS proprietor said the early installment of his wages had been recommended by the organization's administration and that the £90,000 credit was affirmed by Topp and reimbursed inside seven days through a post-dated watch that Chappell gave over when the advance was concurred.
"It is completely whimsical for Darren Topp to propose this when he regularly acted against the board's choices," Chappell said of the assertions. "In the event that these are the main two focuses that Darren Topp can discover to propose that I was running BHS financial balance as my own ledger, it's pitiable and insignificant."
Chappell asserted that Topp got a top of the line rail season ticket worth amongst £5,000 and £6,000 and that BHS was paying for the protection on his new Porsche auto. Chappell said Topp did not have endorsement for this, in spite of the fact that a representative for BHS said this was a piece of Topp's agreement, which was arranged with Chappell.
Honest Field, the executive of thehttp://www.mehandidesigns.sitew.org/#Mehandi.B work and annuities board of trustees, said the claims against Chappell and his Retail Acquisitions consortium were entirely unprecedented.
The Labor MP included: "We are as yet explaining the full story of the last crumple of BHS, yet it happened under Dominic Chappell and RAL's [Retail Acquisitions'] stewardship. They ought to account completely and appropriately for their decis.
Previous JJB Sports supervisor Chris Ronnie has acquired a £105,000 markdown on a seizure request issued after he was sentenced extortion in 2014.
In December, Ronnie was given three months to pay £633,000 in the wake of being indicted extortion in 2014 or have an extra five years added to his four-year sentence. He was later given an expansion to that timetable, giving him until June to make installment.
It is comprehended Ronnie has now consented to pay £527,484.70 after his home in Wilmslow, Cheshire, which assessors had evaluated was worth £170,000, was sold for under £80,000.
Ronnie's resistance group will now apply for that sum to be formally perceived and the appropriation request fulfilled. A representative for the Serious Fraud Office, which took Ronnie to court, said it was normal that the sum gave over by Ronnie would be acknowledged as adequate and he would maintain a strategic distance from the extra five years in jail.
A calendar of benefits from which Ronnie was to secure his installment under the seizure request incorporated the Wilmslow property and a half partake in a house in Marbella, Spain, and in addition a Range Rover, a 258CR enlistment number, worth £4,000, and a Rolex Cosmograph Daytona worth £5,000.
Ronnie was sentenced to four years in jail and banned from being an organization executive for a long time after a jury collectively discovered him blameworthy of taking about £1m in backhanders, then attempting to conceal his wrongdoing.
At the season of his conviction, the judge said Ronnie was blameworthy of an "extremely avaricious" extortion and had not indicated "any indication of regret or even humiliation".
He was discovered liable of three tallies of extortion more than three six-figure money installments made to him by suppliers amid his residency as JJB CEO and two charges of giving false data.
The installments to Ronnie, which he mostly used to purchase an extravagance occasion home in Florida that has subsequent to been sold, were not unveiled to the JJB board.
The misrepresentation became exposed after JJB administrators brought in the Office of Fair Trading in 2009 – in return for resistance – to explore the likelihood that the chain had altered costs on football shirts when Ronnie was in charge with adversary Sports Direct, the sportswear firm keep running by the Newcastle United proprietor Mike Ashley. The OFT acquired the SFO to help with its request, which cleared Sports Direct of wrongdoing.
Their examination found that at the time the misrepresentation was conferred in 2007 and 2008, Ronnie owed more than £11m to an Icelandic bank. He had obtained the total to gain a 29% stake in JJB in 2007 close by another speculator. He then assumed responsibility of the organization.
Ronnie, a previous official at Sports Direct under Ashley, ran JJB between August 2007 and March 2009, amid which time its offer cost drooped from more than £2 to under 3p.
JJB never recuperated from the time of decay under Ronnie and went ahead to fall in September 2012, with the loss of a large number of occupations. The next month, it was declared that Sports Direct had bought part of the business, including 20 stores, the brand and its site, for £24m.
Another fan zone has been found in Belfast to suit a huge number of Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland supporters needing to watch the knockout matches of Euro 2016 on mammoth TV screens this weekend.
The Titanic Slipways quarter on Belfast Lough, where both arrangements of fans viewed their national groups tackle Germany and Italy this week, was reserved for rock shows on Saturday and Sunday so was distracted.
The first and appointee first pastors of Northern Ireland, Arlene Foster and Martin McGuinness, held a crisis meeting before on Thursday to look for an option fan zone venue.
Michael O'Neill's Northern Ireland side face Wales in a home countries conflict on Saturday evening, when the Scottish rock band Biffy Clyro will have Titanic fan zone as influence of the Belsonic music celebration.
Foster tweeted before on Thursday that the issue would be "sorted" and she had requested that Belfast city gathering think of an option area.
Belfast's ruler chairman, Brian Kingston, had proposed that the SSE Arena close to the Titanic quarter may have been a conceivable option, yet Belfast city board later reported that playing fields at Boucher Road in the south of the city had been picked as the new fan zone.
It is comprehended it will cost the committee in any event £100,000 and that bar offices have not yet been concurred.
Coming back from Paris in the wake of watching Northern Ireland lose to Germany, McGuinness paid tribute to the enthusiasts of both Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic, portraying their conduct as inspiring.
South-east England confronts further storms overnight after deluges upset voting in the EU choice, overwhelmed homes and brought about extreme travel delays.
A huge number of suburbanites were stuck at Waterloo station as trains were either deferred or wiped out in light of flooding, with a few people tweeting that they would miss the 10pm due date to cast their tally. Waterloo is one of London's busiest stations and numerous early morning suburbanites would have held up until Thursday night to vote.
The Rail Delivery Group, which speaks to prepare working organizations and Network Rail, faulted the deferrals at Waterloo for a surge in the Wimbledon zone, including http://glitter-graphics.com/users/mehandidesignsimg that exuberant rain and lightning harm had brought on interruption over the south-east. Administrations at London Cannon Street, another primary station, were shut in light of flagging disappointments.
"Exuberant rain and lightning harm have made disturbance the railroad over the south-east of England today with deferrals and cancelations on numerous courses into London," said RDG.
A lightning strike to overhead electrical cables likewise made interruption suburbanites as trains came to a standstill in the wake of losing force.
Thameslink said in an announcement: "At roughly 1805 lightning struck the overhead lines only outside of Elstree and Borehamwood, bringing about the force supply stumbling which brought on the lights to incidentally go out on a few trains in the territory."
Indeed, even before what some portrayed as "savagery" at Waterloo, heavy rain saturated surveying stations, with one voter in Chessington depicting how she must be persisted the water. Another said she had seen individuals "moving up trousers and expelling shoes to wade unshod through filthy water" to vote.
Kingston gathering, in south-west London, shut one of its Devon Way surveying station in view of flooding, advising voters to go to the Hook Center. A surveying station in Dover encountered a force blackout due to the tempests and needed to keep running on a generator. A Dover area board representative said the blackout "did not influence opening" on the grounds that the generators were turned on in time for the 7am begin.
There were worries that overwhelming precipitation could influence turnout, however there were reports of long lines at surveying stations in spite of the storms. In whatever is left of the nation, particularly northern England and southern Scotland, voters delighted in mild climate, with daylight and temperatures up to 20C.
Forecasters said on Thursday that more stormy climate was normal in the south-east later on Thursday.
"Another flood of electrical storms breaking out crosswise over south-eastern UK this evening and night is liable to bring a few rainstorms into the London territory," said the Met Office's central forecaster. "Whether these tempests are as serious as those of the previous evening may be, at this stage, indeterminate, however in perspective of tempests being normal amid the evening and night, effects might be as across the board as those of the previous evening and first thing today."
The London Fire Brigade's 999 office got more than 550 climate related crisis calls and firefighters went to more than 400 episodes overnight.
In Romford, east London, around 60 homes on either side of Lodge Lane on Penn Gardens and Frinton Road were overwhelmed to a profundity of around a meter after the stream Rom burst its banks.
"We're utilizing salvage vessels to get individuals securely out of their properties in the event that they need to abandon them to go to work or out to vote. We're additionally pumping ceaselessly water and utilizing sandbags to attempt and keep more homes from flooding where we can," the station chief, Rod Vitalis, said from the scene.
Flooding brought about far reaching disturbance for workers. System Rail said it had 1,200 designers taking a shot at climate related issues over the system. The District line, DLR and London Overground were all suspended or postponed due to flooding.
A hefty portion of London's streets were influenced by flooding, including the North Circular, which was shut at Waltham Forest. Streets in Battersea in south-west London, Barking in east London and Lewisham were under a few inches of water Thursday morning, up to knee tallness. Water got into ground floor homes in the Longbridge Road region of Barking.
Flooding brought about a few London Underground stations to close amid the morning surge hour, including Embankment, Tooting Broadway, Lambeth North, Borough and Canning Town.
On the rail systems into the capital, Gatwick Express southbound administrations were suspended, and postpones and cancelations implied hopelessness for workers on South West Trains, Southern and Abellio Greater Anglia administrations.
More noteworthy Anglia requested that clients not go into London unless completely vital on the grounds that flooding of the tracks at Manor Park in east London was bringing about serious postponements and cancelations of administrations into Liverpool Street from focuses including Norwich, Ipswich and Colchester.
Southern rail travelers were most extremely influenced by the overwhelmed line at Wandsworth Common, with disturbance liable to proceed until the end of administrations on Thursday night. The system encouraged clients to begin their excursion home as ahead of schedule as could reasonably be expected.
Mike, a 24-year-old medicinal understudy, said he woke up to power cuts and crawls of water in his level in Canada Water, east London. "Our level.
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